Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Front And Center: The Latest Skewed AP Poll

Every one in the media and the Democratic Party is going completely gaga over the latest AP poll, showing Obama's approval rating at 60%. Yahoo puts the story out front and center.

The same poll shows 53% think he deserves re-election. Again, Yahoo wants to make sure you know this right here.

The first story doesn't mention it, the second story buries deep in the last third of the text. But to those who are willing to use their brains for a split second, all it takes is a look at the entire poll to see how heavily this poll was skewed. On page #37, you will see the respondents were 46% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 4% Independent. 20% are too stupid to know what they are.

This is significant for several reasons. The most obvious is a 17% differential between the Dems and the GOP. But the real skewing comes in the shorting of the Independents.

In reality, the Dems and Republicans represent about 30% of the electorate each. The other 30% or so is made up of Independents and other smaller parties. We always expect the Dems and the GOP to vote accordingly, but it's the Indies that win elections. And right now they are not happy with the state of the nation, as it applies to their lives.

In the second linked story, the AP makes an attempt at an explanation:

Some conservatives criticized the AP-GfK poll as heavy with responses from Democrats. AP-GfK polls use a consistent technique that starts with a random sample of the population and lets respondents identify their own political leanings. In this poll, 46 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrats or leaning that way, while 29 percent said they were Republicans or leaning to the GOP. How people identify their leanings fluctuates in polls along with their other political opinions. The change in party identification in the current AP-GfK current poll is not a statistically significant shift from the previous poll in March, and does not by itself explain the poll findings.

Not very scientific, is it? Why not just scrap the poll, when they learn how lopsided the sample is? Answer: they don't care because they figure there are enough stupid people to accept what it says, with no scrutiny at all.

So, here we are. Once again we are going to be forced to endure the cramming of this propaganda down our throats for the next month, while more accurate polls are disregarded and ignored. Such is life when socialist statists are in charge. The state media is hard at work selling the delusion that Obama is a leader, just because he did one thing right.

He's still behind a stopped clock by a 2:1 margin.


A.C. McCloud said...

So they have no idea who they are randomly sampling? What if their random sample turns out to be 90 percent GOP? Or did I read that wrong?

LASunsett said...

Nope, you read it right. If that were to happen, they'd scrap it instantly.

TonyFernandez said...

Polling agencies usually stratify their polls when using such small sample sizes. They do this to make their results more reliable. A straight random poll is good with larger samples, but with only 1001, I don't think you can get a reliable result without stratification. Obama's at 51% according to Gallup, and they use stratified sampling. Guess who's probably more accurate.

And that's your statistics lesson for the day.

Mary Ellen/Nunly said...

What goes up must (and will) come down. So, the Obots and their MSM partners can celebrate all they want, but that number is going to drop like a rock when the elation over Osama's death is forgotten. It will be the prices at the gas pump and the high unemployment numbers that will slap them back into reality. So...let them jump for joy over their skewed polls, it won't last long. And it will also make the drop all that more significant because it won't be a slow creep, but a great big drop.

Chuck said...

This could be bad for the Dems.

Democrats are fickle voters. They are too willing to stay home when they think they have an election in the bag or it is out of reach of winning.

Republicans could become more energized.

Just a thought...