Monday, April 23, 2007

Don't Bet Against Gore.

The speculation seems to be growing. The suspense must be nerve-wracking.All is not well in Clintonville, right now. Hillary is not blowing people away.

In fact, she was stiffed for a prime photo-op and this wasn't just any old "daily grind" kind of thing, either. This was the Rutgers women's basketball team. Her handlers were trying to get some mileage on this story; and she probably would have pulled it off, if it hadn't been for the VT story. Suddenly, the Imus thing doesn't seem to be important anymore. Suddenly, she appears weaker.

Obama has raised as much money as Hillary, but yet, she still has more money in the till than he does. However significant that fact may or may not be, the one thing that stands out about this is, money does not necessarily mean a translation into votes. Obama is not going to go away easily, that's for sure.

If we look at the current poll numbers, we can see some other things that have to be troubling to Hillary and her campaign. First of all, Hillary has trended down a bit and Obama has trended up about twice as much, as she has gone down. The small dips and spikes are consistent with someone that is actively campaigning, but the overall trend tells the bigger story. But that's not all that can be troubling Sen. Clinton and I believe her people know it. (Note how she has started playing the "Bill" card, so soon.)

"I can't think of a better cheerleader for America than Bill Clinton, can you?" the Democratic senator from New York asked a crowd jammed into a junior high school gymnasium. "He has said he would do anything I asked him to do. I would put him to work."


People are not flocking to her in droves. Some are singing her praises, but there are many that will not forgive her for her war vote. In addition, there is a certain sector of people that just cannot, do not, and will not trust her. That has to weigh heavy on the minds of the Dems, if they want to have a realistic chance at this. They have to ask the question, can this candidate win? (If there is doubt, there is uncertainty.)

But, let's be clear about something here. There is one thing that can certainly stop the Hillary machine, before she gets stopped in the November election and the Dems have to regroup again in another four years. There is something that she or her campaign will not be so happy to see, much more so than a further trend up in Obama's numbers.

If you refer
back to the polling data, you'll see that Al Gore has trended up almost four percentage points during this same time. And this he has done despite the fact, he is not a declared candidate yet. So with all of the setbacks (as minor as they may be), it's no wonder that someone is throwing out the possibility that Gore will run.

Here, the Telegraph is reporting that Gore is secretly assembling a team, before he throws his hat in the ring.

Friends of Al Gore have secretly started assembling a campaign team in preparation for the former American vice-president to make a fresh bid for the White House.

Is it wishful thinking, or do they have an "in" with someone that is in the know, and that person(s) wants to stick a toe in the water? Maybe that person wants to plant a seed or two and see if something sprouts up?

I know some of you think I don't know a damned thing about anything, and that's fine. But I firmly believe that Gore may very well run and win the nomination. In the end, I might be wrong. But if I had to bet, I wouldn't bet against it.

5 comments:

Greg said...

What exactly is stopping Gore from running at this point? Is he gun-shy from the 2000 fiasco? He would easily beat either Obama or Hillary. Hillary is in trouble either way. And she is simply unelectable. Gore, on the other hand, can at least say definitively that he is fully electable in the general election.

LASunsett said...

Greg,

//Gore, on the other hand, can at least say definitively that he is fully electable in the general election.//

I think he is very electable. But with the current group of GOP contenders, that doesn't say much though. In fact, I never thought I'd say this, but I would prefer him to Hillary, any day. At least he sincerely believes his misconceptions.

Greg said...

Ah, see, LAS, I differ with you on that count. I prefer some perfectly harmless weathervane to a misguided ideologue. That's why I could vote for any of the Republicans and most of the Democrats running. Albeit with my nose pinched while vomiting into my mouth.

In fact, for me, Mitt Romney & Hillary Clinton are essentially the same person. They believe in nothing, but would probably be good managers who wouldn't do anything extreme.

A.C. McCloud said...

I think it's a very interesting predicament. Hillary's war vote remains a boat anchor for her regards the base left, but I sense that she actually believes we did the right thing at the time. She was privy to all Clinton's intelligence on Saddam via pillow talk (or maybe sofa talk).

I agree with you that Gore cannot be ruled out for the nomination, perhaps running with Obama.

LASunsett said...

Hi AC,

Someone had better tell Hillary to not look back. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama pulling even with Hillary.