But I did find it in Real Clear Politics, which I have been using for a few months now as a valuable tool for finding excellent articles. (Because I like this site so well and it is technically a blog, I am going to blogroll it.)
But now, back to the article which is written by Thomas Donnelly and was originally published in the Armed Forces Journal.
On Oct. 11 the White House released a translation of a communique from al-Qaida's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The letter, dated July 9, was intercepted as the result of a raid conducted shortly thereafter in Iraq. That the administration chose to publish the letter so quickly--indeed, at all--indicates not only a White House scrambling to bolster its poll numbers but a hopeful belief that the letter reveals an enemy in some disarray.
There certainly is a dispute over tactics between Zawahiri and Zarqawi. But at its core, it would seem the real issue is one of strategy, and because it is reasonable to presume Zawahiri speaks for Osama bin Laden, the difference is probably a profound one. The view from al-Qaida headquarters in Pakistan is that Zarqawi's extremely violent tactics in Iraq are counterproductive: "Among the things which the feelings of the Muslim populace will never find palatable," writes Zawahiri, "are the scenes of slaughtering the hostages."
Zawahiri acknowledges the psychic satisfaction of chopping Americans' heads off, but presses Zarqawi not to "be deceived by the praise of some of the zealous young men and description of you as the sheik of the slaughterers, etc." This is hardly an injunction to show mercy: "[W]e can kill the captives by bullet. That would achieve that which is sought after without exposing ourselves to the questions and answering to doubts." To be blunt, "We don't need this."
Maybe this is not as a result of anything we have done, but it does appear to be happening, nevertheless. This leads me to believe that Osama very well could be dead.
Think about it. Wouldn't he be sending the communiques? Add to that the fact, there is a marked difference of opinion between Zawahiri and Zarqawi, one that gives the very appearance of a power struggle.
But why is Zawahiri displeased with Zarqawi?
This distinction helps explain the letter's guidance in regard to the Shi'a majority in Iraq. The centerpiece of Zarqawi's strategy in the Iraqi insurgency has been to attempt to provoke a civil war between the Shi'a and Iraqi Kurds, on one hand, and the Iraqi Sunni. "People of discernment and knowledge among Muslims know the extent of the danger to Islam of the ... school of Shi'ism," observes Zawahiri. "The collision between any state based on the model of prophecy with the Shi'a is a matter that will happen sooner or later. This is the judgment of history, and these are fruits to be expected from the rejectionist Shi'a sect and their opinion of the Sunnis."
Zarqawi appears to be jumping the gun, at least in the opinion of Zawahiri.
Al Qaeda are Sunnis, which have been and still are doctrinally at odds with the Shi'a. Both sides are looking forward to the day when all of Islam will be united under one banner, but both sides will want it to be under their banner. There will be little room for compromise and a showdown is bilaterally accepted, as inevitable.
But Zawahiri, like bin Laden wants to use the unity of both factions to defeat the infidels, first. And Zarqawi does not seen to care if he alienates the Shi'a or not, as is evidenced by the brutal attacks he has engineered and how they have primarily killed innocent Shiite people, in the process. Translation: You are starting the final showdown for world supremacy, too soon.
These are but just a couple of things to be garnered from this well-written, informative piece. It's not overly lengthy and is well worth the time. I highly reccommend it.
10 comments:
Good find, LA!
A few excerpts, followed by my comments, from the AEI article to which you linked:
Interestingly, Zawahiri--mirroring the conventional wisdom in the U.S. State Department and CIA--makes no important distinction between Iraqi Arab Shi'a and Iranian Persian Shi'a...
Infighting within Islam has previously worked to the advantage of infidels. I see what's happening here as an understanding on the part of the enemy of that flaw. And I think--hope--that this administration has been hoping for that flaw. Will that flaw be remedied after centuries of conflict within Islam? I doubt it, but if it is, the infidel world is in huge trouble!
Violence alone, in Zawahiri's estimation, will not achieve al-Qaida's goals....And it is clearly governance--political, temporal rule, not sacred violence for its own sake--that matters to Zawahiri and bin Laden....
More evidence of Islam's geopolitical orientation.
In practical terms, the distinction between emirate and caliphate may be quite small. But in terms of strategic horizons, it is immense; it is the difference between an entity with essentially defensive aims and one with expansionist, imperial goals. Once there is an entrenched Islamic authority in the Sunni provinces of Iraq, it is to become the vehicle to "extend the jihad wave to the secular countries neighboring Iraq." An Iraqi Sunni emirate will not be easily deterred or contained.
Same old, same old, huh? Take over the world!
The obvious problem for Zawahiri is that it is Zarqawi who is the rising star. It may be that Zarqawi will be the one to define the future of the movement, not bin Laden.
A ray of hope here?
The war will continue, and seems more likely to grow than to end.
This war of Dar al-Islam against Dar al-Harb has been going on some 1400 years and is not likely to end in my lifetime, which is, if I'm lucky, about 25 more years).
First, congratulations, LA, you are the 15,000 visitor to my blog!
Interesting find, indeed! But I wonder. Perhaps bin Laden is dead. If he's dead, Zawahiri may need funding from another source. Let's remember Zawahiri pre-dates bin Laden and comes directly from the Islamic Brotherhood (if I remember correctly.)
It could be that Zawahiri now gets his funding from Iran. Reports have bin Laden's family in Iran. Thus, the "cool it on the Shiites" routine is due to a temporary change in sponsorship.
It's quite common for allies to become enemies and than allies again in the Islamic world. Saddam did it, Arafat did it. This could be a change for Zawahiri. Of course, our government won't say so because it would then have to act or reveal a change in policy.
Just guessing. We'll see.
Jason has a point: OBL could be dead.
Jason and AOW,
Both of you make good points.
Jason, what can I say?
I was Mustang's 5000th and won an all expense paid trip to a Caribbean island (as yet, unnamed) on Bob and Hank Airlines. It was okay. My therapist says that the nightmares will someday go away.
Bin Laden not sending the note himself, to me, means very little. Zawahiri was always the do-er. Bin Laden is the figurehead, the spiritual leader so to speak.
LA,
One of the lesser known islands, no doubt. LOL.
I'll have to chip-in on Mustang's prize ... although the island he had in mind was just washed away in the last hurricane. Now we’ve got a day trip to Reno on a Greyhound Bus …
You have to let a fella know when you decide to come back there pal... you cant just dissapear for awhile, then "pop up".
Anyway... I find this stuff pretty interesting, but only from a detached perspective. I personally never like to try and play at "arm chair General", and that is what stuff like this makes me want to start doing. I usually open my mouth and insert my foot when I start... So I just read, smile, pay attention, and shut up.
No Jason, the island was there. I saw it, I beheld it. It was a real paradise, I tell you. I should have cashed in the prize, for the $49.95 + taxes that Mustang paid for it.
And as far as the day trip to Reno is concerned, as long as it is not an Indian casino. I lost my ass at the one I went to in Oregon a few months ago and did it in record time. I never knew that I could feed $60 into a quarter slot machine in fifteen minutes.
I told the lady at the cashier's cage that next time, I would just save the time and come and pay it straight to the window. Then I went out and saw people just throwing their money out of their car windows, as they blew by the joint on the interstate that ran right in front. That's when I realized that I could just do that and not have to spend 20 minutes to find a parking place (to go the window).
No sir. Nothing but corporate casinos for me, from now on. I can play at least 2-3 hours, for the same money.
AOW, maybe it was one of the "Lesser" Antilles?
Esther,
I don't think that Osama not sending the message is, in and of itself, the one thing that tells me he is dead. There are more signs.
"You have to let a fella know when you decide to come back there pal... you cant just dissapear for awhile, then "pop up"."
G,
Sorry.
As Christmas nears, there may even more gaps in blogging on my part. But I will try to remember to let you know.
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