Sunday, May 06, 2007

Le Président Sarkozy

Most of you probably already know the results of today's French presidential election. I doubt many of you hit the PYY link for up to the minute news coverage. If you do, I have to say you are not quite right. But if you don't know the result yet, Sarkozy won.

I have to say that I am surprised by the results. In the back of my mind, I thought Bayrou's first round voters would swing towards Royal and there would be little turn-out by Le Pen's. I am not sure of the exact demographics, but it would appear that enough of them did turn out and swung it Sarko's way.

Now, the new president has chosen to claim a mandate.

"The French people have called for change. I will carry out that change, because that's the mandate I have received from the French people."


Before we get carried away here, the new leader must maintain support in the legislature to be most effective. Those elections are in June. So celebrating too long is not a viable option. Sarkozy cannot afford allow the left coalition to overtake the right, if he really expects to have a chance of making any real meaningful change.

If the French people vote the same way and give support to the new direction, I look for a long and tough battle towards reform, anyway. With the left being relegated to being the opposition, their voice would be heard, but their cries of disagreement would not necessarily be considered. If that turns out to be the case, I would expect to see more protests than under the Chirac government. That will be their only hope.

In the meantime, many are now taking a breath of collective relief that Royal didn't win. Not only do many Brits and Americans do so, but so does 53% of the French citizenry. In the end, it would appear that more people thought the nation needed to change directions, both at home and on the world stage.

From what I see, it's relatively simple. A vote for change? Yes. A mandate? We''ll have to wait for June 10 to answer that one.

7 comments:

A.C. McCloud said...

Some on the left are comparing French conservatives more to Bill Clinton than our version. You know a lot more than I do, is that even close to correct?

Cause it seems to me if Sarkozy is closer to Clinton that would make his socialist opponent a communist.

LASunsett said...

AC

//You know a lot more than I do, is that even close to correct? //

I don't know a heck of a lot more than you do. But on the whole, Europe is farther to the left than we are across the board. So, I would say the comparison may be accurate.

L'Amerloque said...

Hi LASunsett !
Hi ACMcC !


/*/But on the whole, Europe is farther to the left than we are across the board. /*/


Amerloque attempted an illustration of this a while back at

http://amerloqueparis.blogspot.com/2005/04/simple-illustration.html


One could plot M Sarkozy at approximately the same as M Chirac, at 6.0 or 6.5, say
Mme Royal would do nicely at, say, 4.5 or so.


Hope this helps …


Best,
L'Amerloque

ms. miami said...

ac mccloud- don't worry, there were plenty of candidates from parties further left than ségolène royal!

LASunsett said...

Hi Amerloque,

Excellent illustration, sir. Although, I would personally view Michael Moore closer to a 4.5. ;)

A.C. McCloud said...

Thanks L'Amerloque.

And Ms. Miami, are you saying Dennis Kucinich would be a moderate over there?

ms. miami said...

ac mccloud- yep, kucinich would be very middle of the road in france.

except for the wto stuff, pretty much everything he advocates has wide support throughout the population. crazy concept, n'est-ce pas? ;)