Monday, May 07, 2007

Some French Election Stats

Here are some early demographics from the French election held Sunday:

Women voters.

Sarkozy 52%

Royal 48%


According to this article, Royal miscalculated the gender issue. Instead of focusing on specific programs and ideas, more voters felt she used her gender as bait. Knowing that I lack a deep in-depth knowledge of the French electorate, I cannot say much more than that. But to bring this home, I would caution the American electorate against using the gender issue as the sole reasoning for supporting Hillary. I think it's shallow and if the French election is any kind of indication, it's not particularly a successful strategy.

French Ex-patriot voters.

Sarkozy 53.99%

Royal 46.01%


Link to numbers. (HT: SuperFrenchie)

This was pretty fairly predictable. Many (but not all) have left France for more economic and business freedom and Sarko was their man, pretty much from the beginning. It wasn't an extremely wide margin, but if Royal were to have won this particular vote, I think she would have won. (I don't base this on numbers, just political intuition.)

Some post-election statistics.

Arrests for rioting 592

Vehicles burned 730

Police officers injured 28



For complete analysis from someone more in the know than me, give a look at Amerloque's post-election analysis. In the time I have come to know him in the blogosphere, he has proven time and again, he is a good and trusted source of information.

Update:

Read The Right Revolution For France by Dominique Moisi,
Sarkozy's Dangerous Strengths by Jim Hoagland,
Sarkozy Must Ring The Changes by Anthony Daniels,
and this editorial from the Telegraph for more perspective.

14 comments:

Mary Ellen said...

Hi LA

It was interesting to follow this election and read the different opinions on the French/American blogs.

Personally, I didn't think the race was going to be that close. I noted early on that many women didn't seem to connect with Royal. For some reason, politicians and men think that women vote on one issue. We're not that stupid and it doesn't matter what gender a political candidate is, it is more important what that candidate can DO.

Royal was great about talking about the "kitchen table" issues, but she never seemed to come up with a viable way to pay for the programs she wanted. Women don't like to hear "pie in the sky" promises, we want the facts, and how to pay for things is an important fact, IMO.

Also, the stupid, personal sniping remarks to Sarkozi in her campaign speeches just made her look weak and petty. Women voters don't want a woman candidate who fulfills the stereotype we all hate about being the weaker sex.

I think she managed to pull off the young vote because the younger generation hasn't had the experience to be able to tell the difference between campaign rhetoric and reality. Of course this isn't true of ALL young voters. I saw on another blog an interview with some young French voters. When asked how they think Royal will be able to pay for the social programs that she wanted, they just shrugged their shoulders.

Sarkozi may not accomplish all that he promised, but I don't think he could be much worse than Chiraq. The more I am reading about him, I also don't think he's going to be Bush's poodle, hell, no one wants to be associated with Bush anymore, even Republicans...except McCain and Lieberman.

OK...that's my take on it. Go ahead and slam me now.... :-D

Greg said...

Damn - no one slammed Mary Ellen.

Well, try as I might, I can't find anything there to disagree with either.

I would caution drawing a link b/w Royal and Hillary, though, LAS. Hillary is a tenancious, battle-tested politician. And she is polished - witness the Democratic debate where she obviously looked the most presidential.

Mary Ellen said...

Greg

Wow, no slam.I feel a little...I don't know....Republican.

Here ya go, I think this calls for a Hillary joke.

The Washington Post reports that Sen. Hillary Clinton is trying to win the Democratic nomination by reaching out to women. After hearing this, Bill Clinton said, "Oh sure, when she does it, it’s OK.” -Conan

LASunsett said...

Hi ME,

//OK...that's my take on it. Go ahead and slam me now...//

I cannot slam someone when they are right. Personally, I think your assessment is pretty accurate.

And BTW, good joke. :)

LASunsett said...

Greg,

//I would caution drawing a link b/w Royal and Hillary, though, LAS.//

For sure, they are very different. But, you and I both know there are some that will support her purely because she is a woman without looking at her views. That's what I caution against.

Mary Ellen said...

LA

I don't think you are going to see too many women supporting Hillary just because she is a woman. Believe me, women voters take their vote very seriously. They are looking for a President who is going to bring better health care and equal pay for women and many other issues that are important to those soccer moms. Hillary also appeals to the college aged voters.

Hillary has proven herself to be able to fight without backing down to pressure. She can raise money, make her voice heard, and get the job done.

That said, I'm not so sure she will have the women vote in the bag. Barack Obama has a growing number of women who are following him. He knows the woman's vote is going to be important. From one of his speeches in Washington...

"From the first moment a woman dared to speak that hope - dared to believe that the American Dream was meant for her too - ordinary women have taken on extraordinary odds to give their daughters the chance for something else; for a life more equal, more free, and filled with more opportunity than they ever had. In so many ways we have succeeded, but in so many areas we have much work left to do.”

~ Barack Obama, Speech in Washington, DC, 11/10/05


Just google "Women for Barack" and you will see a number of sites that have coordinated campaigning for Barack.

Personally, I think Obama has a much better chance of bringing in the Independent and fed up Reagan Conservatives to vote Democrat in 08. However, right now, it shows that every Democratic candidate can beat the Republican candidates. They're in a real mess, thanks to Bush. His 28% approval rating is scaring the bejebus out of the Republicans.

The one to watch...Hagel. Will he run as an Independent? If he does, will he split the Republican vote, making it even easier for the Democrats? Hmmm.....

Ok...I think I said enough for you guys to disagree with now. My job is done. :-)

LASunsett said...

ME,

//Believe me, women voters take their vote very seriously.//

Many do, no argument there. But I know many women, I work with them, my wife knows some. Hell, even my mom is one.

But there are some (and I know a few) that couldn't articulate what Hillary's views are. They only know that it's time for a woman and since Hillary is the one right now, they are on the bandwagon.

But again, you are right to say not all women are not that way. Because, they aren't. And I also think you are right on the Obama appeal to some women. Some flat out do not like Hillary and Obama is who they are going to support.

But as I say around here from time to time, do not count Gore out yet. Win the Nobel, throw a hat into the ring, and presto. You have a new front runner, almost instantly.

Rocket said...

LA

"It wasn't an extremely wide margin"

Actually 53% - 47% is considered a blowout in France

LASunsett said...

Rocket,

//Actually 53% - 47% is considered a blowout in France//

Interesting.

I guess when I look back at some of our landslides, like 1984 and 1972, it just doesn't look as pronounced.

All_I_Can_Stands said...

The one to watch...Hagel. Will he run as an Independent? If he does, will he split the Republican vote, making it even easier for the Democrats?

Good thing I wasn't drinking anything when I read that. Yeah, Hagel will split the vote: one (himself) and the rest of us.

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I don't think anybody takes Hagel seriously except Hagel.

Mary Ellen said...

AICS

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I don't think anybody takes Hagel seriously except Hagel.

Interesting...so, you guys take Mitt French 6th month marriage plan Romney seriously? Rudy I can't remember which side on abortion Giuliani? This guy you take seriously? Or, John lets take the military out for a stroll in an Iraq marketplace McCain? Really...the Republicans have a group of clowns (white middle aged clowns) running. Hagel may be your best shot.

Have you noticed the mass exodus of Republicans trying to distance themselves from Bush and his policies? Bush? Bush who???? Hagel is more on the side of the VERY LARGE majority of American people and the majority of military leaders when it comes to Iraq. I don't know if he has any more than that going for him. However, that guy may be your only bet. I wouldn't count on Flip Flop Fred Thompson to save you.

Maybe you guys can dig up Reagan's corpse and throw him in the race.
:=D

Greg said...

Actually, pining for Fred Thompson is a way for some Republicans to dig up Reagan's corpse. I mean, what does anyone know about Fred Thompson, except that he was both a politician and an actor, just like Reagan? It shows real dissatisfaction among the rank-&-file for the current pool of candidates that more than 10% of registered Republicans support the guy. I'm not really in love with any of the candidates on either side, frankly. I like McCain the most, but he's missed his chance. My guy never wins :(

But Hagel hasn't a snowball's chance in hell. To run as an independent, you need to be a billionaire. He ain't. He'll either have to run as a Republican, or forget about it.

Mary Ellen said...

Greg

I didn't think about the money issues that Hagel would have. You're right about that, the Republicans would never help an Independent...except for Lieberman, the "so-called" Independent. ;-)

I don't think Fred Thompson would do all that well. Just because he's an actor/politician doesn't mean too much when the debates come around. The fact is, he's a supporter of Bush and his war. 57% of Americans want our guys out of Iraq. Fred Thompson is a "stay the course" kind of guy, like Bush,Cheney, Lieberman and McCain.

What do you think of Gingrich? I know he's going to run, but again, the guy has an awful lot of bad baggage to carry with him.

Shah Alexander said...

Related trackback.

Sarkozy Peut Améliorer les Relations Franco-Américaines?