Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Indiana, North Carolina: What The Numbers Tell Us

A big win for Obama in North Carolina and a squeaker in Indiana for Clinton gives us some information to evaluate.

In Indiana, you can see the breakdown by county here.

In this map we can see Obama won Lake County. This is the suburban area adjacent to Chicago. Here you will find a huge black population and some elitists in the southern part of the county that are partial to Obama because of the Chicago media.

Marion County (Indianapolis) went for Obama. This county has a large black and significant elitist population.

Boone County, which is rural in the north but elitist in the south, went for Obama. Obama's support was centered in the suburbs of Indy, where the elitists reign in the Democratic party. Hamilton County, another suburban county of Indy, went for Obama. More elitists carried him through. Both of these counties are usually GOP strongholds and will likely go red in the general election.

Three counties have huge universities. Tippecanoe (Purdue), St, Joseph (Notre Dame), and Monroe (IU) all went for Obama.

Obama was also successful in Allen County, which includes Ft Wayne. This is the only county that is a true hodge podge of demographics that includes students, blue collar workers, blacks, and elitists.

Terre Haute, Evansville, Kokomo, Anderson, Muncie, and Marion are depressed industrial cities that have lost many manufacturing jobs over the years. Of the two, TH and Muncie have ISU and Ball State, but it was not enough for Obama to carry. These areas, along with the Louisville and Cincinnati suburbs, went for Clinton.

Out of 92 counties, Obama won 9 and was still in the race at the end. He won Illinois neighboring states Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, but was not able to pull out Indiana and looks to fail in Kentucky. Indiana has a larger elitist population than many in other parts of the country may realize and by all rights, he should have carried this one.

Over the past decade, North Carolina has experienced a large influx of northeasterners due to the booming banking industry in Charlotte and the tech industry in the Raleigh-Durham area. Factor this in with the large university populations and a proportionately high black electorate, you can figure this one out.

Bottom line here is, the Reagan Democrats will likely not support Obama. He cannot win in November without them. Add to this the fact that Both of these states usually go Republican and Obama has not carried one large industrial state, you will then see why this campaign stands a good chance of faltering in the general election.


Greg said...

BHO continues to lose key states, yet demands HRC quit. Wimp.

LASunsett said...

As for Clinton,the last chance and/or hope she has to make any argument to the super-delegates is W VA and KY. But I stress, she must win big in both states. And even if she does that the party elite have probably made their decision.

What they do not consider is, Obama has a problem connecting with the mainstream. And as we all know by now, the Dems are becoming the party of special interests and elitists. Neither of those demographics are mainstream.

Greg said...

As for Clinton,the last chance and/or hope she has to make any argument to the super-delegates is W VA and KY

First, she will win both. She will win WVa by double digits.

Second, why should HRC have a "last chance" at this point? Why should BHO feel entitled to the nomination? He doesn't have the pledged delegates he needs either, and it is mathematically impossible for him to get them.

Ah, but the popular vote! BHO is ahead. As long as you don't count Michgan and Florida....

But he's ahead! The superdelegates have to vote for him! Only if you think their only purpose is to confirm the vote of the pledged delegates, which makes no sense. The SD's should be exercising independent judgment, picking the best general election candidate.

In sum, I think that as of today HRC is as entitled to that nomination as BHO.