I am not a sports pundit, by any any stretch of the imagination. But after watching football for 42 years, I'd like to think I have learned a thing or two about the game.
I watched Vince Lombardi coach the Green Bay Packers to victory in Super Bowls I and II, back when the annual event was considered merely a post-season exhibition. Not until a brash, confident Joe Namath guaranteed a victory by his NY Jets over a highly favored Baltimore Colts team did the game acquire any real meaning in the football community.
Since then, each year about this time, NFL fans are focused on one thing which is the primary goal of every team in the league, when training camps break in July. At the beginning of the season, who would have thought Dallas and New England would be out, and Miami, Arizona, and Atlanta would be in? My guess is, not many.
I think this year is one of the few times that there is a certain level of parity within the the system, with a few exceptions of course. What I mean to say is, Arizona and San Diego have as little chance as anyone to go all the way. But as far as the rest of the field is concerned, I think it's anyone's pick as to who will win the" big one". It is not too inconceivable that this year's winner can come from this round.
While the Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers, and NY Giants wait to face teams yet to be determined, these teams that will compete this weekend will be playing football and have one more game to get into a rhythm. And with football being a game of momentum, sometimes this is an advantage.
So without further expostulating on what is now generic material, here is a look at the games this weekend and how I see them playing out:
Atlanta (#5) at Arizona (#4)
I have said many times that the Falcons have flown in under the radar this season. Put this with the fact that the Cardinals have just won a weak NFC West Division and you will see why I am picking Atlanta to win this one.
Atlanta has a good defense with an offense that likes to keep them rested. They pound the ball on the ground and QB Matt Ryan can throw the ball efficiently enough to keep the offense on the field for long drives. Arizona does have Warner playing well, but I do not think it will be enough to beat a team that was close to winning a very competitive NFC South Division.
The Falcons' running game is led by Michael Turner, who gained 1699 yards this season, for an average of 106.2 per game. That total was second only to Adrian Peterson, the rushing leader for the season. Part of this is due to the great blocking by the offensive line, part of it is due the athleticism of Turner. This takes a lot of pressure off of rookie Matt Ryan. Being new in the league puts a lot of pressure on a young QB and this is the one factor many sports pundits are overlooking, right now. They rave about Peterson, but have not yet given Turner his due; this gives some motivation for Turner to go out and have a great game, to establish himself as a force in the league.
Indianapolis (#5) at San Diego (#4)
I have made no secret of my dislike for the Chargers, their QB, or their coach. Sure, they won the AFC West (the weakest division in the NFL). But they have an 8-8 record and only won it because Denver's defense was so horrendous down the stretch.
But as little respect as I have for the Chargers, they are the most dangerous team for the Colts to be playing right now. They match up well against Indy and pose a formidable threat, through their running game. LaDamian Tomlinson is still a potent force in the league, and the Colts have had their share of troubles stopping the run this year. So, I think it will be no big secret that SD will try to pound the ball at Indy, sustaining long drives that keep Manning on the sidelines as long as possible. That's how the teams that beat the Colts this year, have won.
Indy's defense will have to rise to the occasion and get some stops, especially on third down. They cannot allow LT to dominate the game, as well as, they must put pressure on Rivers when he wants to throw. They must create havoc for them, get them off of the field, and get the ball back into Manning's hands. Rivers is much like Manning in that he relies heavily on timing patterns. By forcing Rivers to throw before he wants, they set themselves up for incompletions and possible interceptions.
As for the Colts' lackluster running game, Rhodes is looking stronger and hopefully Addai will be stronger. If the RBs can do well enough to keep the SD defense off balance with the play action, the Colts' offense should have no trouble chewing up the SD defense.
As for the intangibles, revenge for last year's playoff loss at home should be on every Colt's mind. The visual of Rivers taunting the Colts' fans on the sideline should be fresh enough to motivate them. But in the end, I think it will come down to hunger and preparation. The coaches for Indy are far better than SD's, but the players will have to execute the game plan. If they can do it with class and integrity, they will win the game. If not, SD will win this one. But rest assured, they will get eliminated the following week by either Pittsburgh, or Tennessee.
In short, this is SD's best hope to win a playoff game this year.
Baltimore (#6) at Miami (#3)
I have to tip my hat to the Dolphins for this season's turnaround. But I have my doubts about them beating the Ravens, in this one. Baltimore's defense is as good as any in the league right now. Their unit was second only to the Steelers, and not by much.
I hope Miami pulls an upset, because I am no Baltimore fan. For almost a quarter of a century I have heard Baltimore fans whine about how Indy "stole" the Colts from them, only to watch Baltimore "steal" the Browns from Cleveland. It would give me great pleasure to see them lose to a Parcells team, despite the fact that "Big Tuna" is not the coach.
Miami's defense will need to keep it close by shutting down the Ravens' offense. The Dolphins are not going to score many points, so it is imperative they keep their opponent's score low and be in a postion to win the game, in the end. That's where I think the home crowd and the intangibles can have an effect on the outcome of the game. If they do not do this, this could get ugly for Miami, quickly.
If Miami can hold the Baltimore offense to a couple of FGs, they will only need to kick three to win. But in the end, I still think the Ravens will pull this one out and face Tennessee, the following week.
Philadelphia (#6) at Minnesota (#3)
Philly is the hottest team right now. Benching McNaab was just what the doctor ordered for a team that up until three weeks ago, looked like they would be watching the playoffs in their homes. They not only beat Dallas to get into the playoffs, they embarrassed them in the process.
The only reason Minnesota made it was they won a weak division. Even with the league's leading rusher, they barely squeaked in. Tarvaris Jackson is not that good and once he starts throwing the ball into that Eagles secondary, it will become painfully apparent. I say this because the Eagles have capped off this season with a strong performance from their defense. They have been solid down the stretch and have kept the ball in McNaab's hands through quality stops and big plays resulting in turnovers.
In summary, I am picking:
Atlanta over Arizona
Indy over San Diego
Baltimore over Miami
Philadelphia over Minnesota
What's your take?
1 comment:
My card looks just like yours...
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