Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Iranian Unrest May Lead To Uncertainty

CNN has details of the unrest in Iran, over the government's decision to ration gas to the people.

The Iranian government's last-minute decision to ration monthly fuel allotments, as well as increase the price of gas, triggered protests and riots -- a rarity in the Islamic republic -- according to Iranian media reports.


How ironic it is that Iran (an oil producing state) would feel the need to both ration and raise the price of gasoline? But wait, it gets better.

Under the order, most Iranians will be limited to about 26 U.S. gallons (100 liters) per month. The ministry also announced the price would be raised by more than 20 percent to 11 cents per liter (about 42 cents a gallon).


42 cents a gallon and they are complaining? Tough times, I guess. It's hard to feel much empathy, but I'll try.

On second thought, maybe I won't. But what can we expect when a government takes revenues from oil sales and put it into enriching uranium, funding terrorist organizations, and fighting proxy wars to both weaken and subvert the causes of the United States?


Almost sounds like a previous era, doesn't it?

The U.S. ans E.U. playing their cards right in this one is most important, just as it was back in the days of the Cold War. Circumstances are such that conditions are ripening, for further unrest in the republic, if it fails to correct its current course. The more they concern themselves with sanctions, the more the government will need to stick it to the people.

It is also important remember in all of this, the Iranian government must be the one to take the fall for this. To date, there have been no sanctions and realistically, there may never be any. But the very thought of the possibility, is making the Iranian government very nervous. In fact, they are so nervous, they are willing to risk igniting a firestorm (pun intended), just to save fuel for the eminent possibility of getting the squeeze put on them later. (Again, nothing has been decided, yet.)

The Iranian economy is in shambles for the most part. And the fact that they have become dependent on their automobiles, doesn't help their situation much either. Iranians are smart. If this keeps up, they are going to get even smarter and realize that with all of the oil they supposedly have, they should be able to refine their own fuel and not depend. But,when getting a nuke is more important than keeping the promises that the Iranian President made during his campaign, I predict it isn't going to set very well.

Basically, what I am saying here is simple. There may be more where this came from, if the Iranian government doesn't end their obsession with throwing the entire region into chaos, with their foreign policies (that primarily focus on supporting the destruction of Israel). When you see a nation obsessed with things outside its borders and cannot even meet the needs of the people within, you will see an eventual collapse of the entire system. So in all of my musings I must say without hesitation, the challenge is to facilitate this before they get the bomb, not after.

3 comments:

mustang said...

One would think that if Iran had the technology to develop nuclear energy, they’d sure as heck have the capability to maintain their oil production facilities. It is also possible that Iran contrived their fuel shortages to demonstrate the need for a nuclear energy capability. I keep hearing that many Iranians want better relations with the West and that the government of Iran is actually a shoestring away from collapsing, but I wonder how that could even be possible. Years ago, I learned that the massive demonstrations that occur in Japan every August (to protest the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki) were only possible because demonstrators were paid to demonstrate; were it not for that, no one would show up for any demonstration. Is it possible that Iranian demonstrations are also part of the show?

Like you, I believe that if the government of Iran truly cared about their people, they would not arrest and torture them, they would have greater respect for their women by recognizing the fact that women are entitled to the same rights as the men, and more importantly, the government would refrain from exposing its citizens to nuclear holocaust. Even a moron should understand that a nuclear weapon is a double-edged sword; if Iran ever uses it, especially if they use it against Israel, Tehran will cease to exist. Sadly, it seems that common sense does not prevail in any Islamic nation. Now, I understand that Saudi Arabia also wants to develop a nuclear weapons capability – and if the Saudis are added to a growing list of moronic nations who have nuclear weapons, Western nations should give up the expectation for future peace.

A.C. McCloud said...

Interesting point that the rationing might be a stunt to garner support for nookular power. The only thing pointing against it is the lack of official press releases, since it seems most of the news first came from Iranian bloggers, underground, etc. If it's a propaganda campaign, it's a darn good one.

But we know the crack-down on Islamic dress and sexual freedoms are real and not popular. I'm still thinking the Mullahs have a pretty tenuous grip on their country at the moment. The NY Times reported last year that many average Tehranians were sick of their govt giving money to Hizballah while they suffered.

LASunsett said...

Mustang,

You raise some interesting points worthy of some thought and consideration.

//It is also possible that Iran contrived their fuel shortages to demonstrate the need for a nuclear energy capability.//

Very possible. Or it could be that Iran is running lower on oil than many may realize.

At very least we know that Iran must import much of its gasoline due to its lack of refineries. As per this link, we can see that refineries are in the planning stages.

//Years ago, I learned that the massive demonstrations that occur in Japan every August (to protest the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki) were only possible because demonstrators were paid to demonstrate; were it not for that, no one would show up for any demonstration. Is it possible that Iranian demonstrations are also part of the show?//

This is also a possibility. But I wonder if it's more on the part of the government's side than those of the opposition. Many claim that when we see a sound bite of an Iranian demonstration, there are only a handful of people, relative to the amount that the camera angles make it appear to be. In this one, it is being reported than only 300 people showed up.

It may be very well true that there is a lot of dissent forming in the Islamic Republic. Much of it goes unnoticed much like the dissent in the old Soviet Union did. When we consider the population that has become of adult age during this present regime and never knew what life was like under the Shah, it's easy to see why there is this restlessness with their leadership.