Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Brief Thoughts: Florida's Primaries

Here are the results.

It's the talk of the news channels today. There's not much that can be said that hasn't, so I won't repeat a whole lot of what others have been saying, ad nauseum.

That said, here are some brief thoughts about the significance of the voting yesterday:



Democrats:

Hillary won big, but other the candidates were supposed to be honoring a boycott of the state. You will note the party that disenfranchises voters in this case is not the GOP.

But beyond this, Hillary gets a boost anyway. She may not get the delegates, but she gets the publicity. She gets her name in the papers as the winner, she gets the positive press. One thing important to note (among many) is, Obama does not do well in areas where he doesn't spend a lot of time. He does better in areas where he can concentrate on organizational development.

Some of the racial rhetoric has died down for now, but it's still simmering. When all is said and done, the division we see now between the two camps may run deeper than can be repaired.



Republicans:


Much closer race, but distant enough to give an edge to McCain in the upcoming races. This will be especially true in areas where Giuliani was expected to run strong. Rudy swings his support to McCain today, according to news hounds everywhere. I have little doubt this will happen. I also think there's a job somewhere for Rudy in a McCain administration.

Once Bhutto was assassinated, McCain's stock rose greatly. I think this is because people once again began to remember that this is a dangerous world. They may have issues with the current administration's handling of foreign policy, but they also know and understand that no Democrat seems to have a handle to what the right approach is to this component of the job they all seek.

It's a shame that Romney and McCain do not like each other. The reasonable thing to plan for is a McCain/Romney ticket. McCain handles foreign policy, Romney takes the economical issues. I say this because both are stronger in one area than the other and would compliment each other's skills better. It takes a team.

4 comments:

Greg said...

I hadn't thought of the Bhutto assassination as the catalyst for McCain's "surge", but it does make sense. Romney is the candidate for people voting on the economy. McCain is the guy for people voting on terrorism and the wars. But if you're a conservative, you aren't comfortable with McCain b/c, well, he's basically a Democrat; and you aren't comfortable with Romney b/c, though he's saying the right things now, you know he was saying the opposite not too long ago.

Some say that this election marks the end of the Republican party as the conservative party. They may be right.

On Guiliani, he could have paid many other people less money than he paid his current advisors to tell him you can't ignore the first month of primaries and expect to have a chance. What a dolt! Too bad b/c I liked some of his ideas, even if his personality was kind of a turn-off for me.

The only thing noteworthy on the Democratic side from Florida - since there are no delegates this year - is the very high level of participation. Democrats are fired up for this election, and the Republicans are on the verge of nominating a guy (my preferred candidate) who really turns off the Republican base. Republicans may not show up to vote in November if the candidate is McCain.

Despite my concerns about the effect of a McCain nomination, I'm doing my part to ensure that McCain has the best chance to win it all by voting in the Democratic primary for Hillary. I don't think she's a good candidate in the general election. Obama, on the other hand, is very dangerous.

Greg said...

On the racial aspect of the Democratic race, have you heard the theory that the Clintons deliberately alienated blacks in SC to turn Obama into the "black candidate" and make a certain type of white, southern Democrat run away from him? If I were real cynical, I might believe it....

Obama still did quite well among whites in Florida, apparently.

LASunsett said...

Greg,

//On the racial aspect of the Democratic race, have you heard the theory that the Clintons deliberately alienated blacks in SC to turn Obama into the "black candidate" and make a certain type of white, southern Democrat run away from him? If I were real cynical, I might believe it....//

I thought about this possibility. They both graduated from Machiavelli U., so I wouldn't put it past them. Obama does well among young people, but I think the boomers will stick with Billary for the most part.

Mustang said...

Hillary’s win in Florida reminds me of the overwhelming support for Nguyen van Thieu in 1971. He won 98% of the popular vote — a pretty darn good showing had there been an opponent.

I don’t know what to think about that other 2%. It might have been that there are really stupid voters no matter where you go, or possibly 2% of voters entered the race as write-in candidates. We’ll never know for sure because they were tracked down and shot.

LA: How can "mevow" appear in word verification? It isn't a word. Please explain.