Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Deliberate Acts, Deliberate Purposes

As many of you may already know, there was a stand down situation in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

To see the video, is a bit nerve-racking because of the intensity of the situation. So many emotions, so little time to process them and the event unfolding. The need to make the correct decision or risk disastrous consequences has a way of elevating one's sense of awareness or blood pressure, depending on the personality-type. This has to be the case here.

The objective behind this deliberately provocative act is still not known. But here are a few things to consider:

Although it's easy to second guess as to why the Navy didn't fire, it's not easy an easy thing to problem to solve. One has to consider the ramifications of such an act in a few seconds. The Commanding Officer of the group must not only consider the presence of explosives that could explode when within range of the Iranian boats, he must also consider the kind of explosives.

There is a distinct possibility the speed boats could be loaded with nuclear material that could have devastating consequences, if they were hit by Navy fire.

One thing we know is the act was purposeful and very likely directed by the Iranian government. It could have caused a big international incident, one that would have likely been discussed in UN focus groups for weeks to come, with no real solutions.

If the incident was designed to be a dry run, there will need to be some after action briefings producing a clear-cut policy on how to handle the next one, which could be the one that really sends the region into chaos, if not handled properly. Whatever the reasons behind the Iranians' display of poor judgment, there has yet to be one candidate address this. If there has been, I haven't heard them.

The next President will need to show the American people he/she can handle the kind of pressure incidents like these. I think it's a fair question to ask when evaluating the vote that we will all cast, in November.


3 comments:

Greg said...

It's either a dry-run, as you suggest - a way to see how close they can get before they draw fire - or it was actually a deliberate attempt to draw fire and provoke a violent incident. I think it's the former. I think they are intent on sinking a US warship like al Qaeda did to the Cole.

I think the Navy needs to re-evaluate the ROE in the area, and increase the size of the buffer zone. Mix things up on the Iranians so they don't know how close they can get. It may require blasting one of their little boats to show them who's boss.

Anyway, another question is whether this will change the minds of people who think America is the one provoking conflict b/w our country and Iran. Whaddya think, guys? Fat chance, huh?

Greg said...

That video is shocking. They get right up on the ship and try to surround it. It's amazing those Iranians lived to tell the story. The Navy showed much restraint. Too much, I think.

LASunsett said...

//Anyway, another question is whether this will change the minds of people who think America is the one provoking conflict b/w our country and Iran. Whaddya think, guys? Fat chance, huh?//

Didn't you get the word? The Islamic Republic of Iran has issued a statement on their state-run TV saying, the entire video was fabricated. That's enough for a terrorist state, I'd think it should be enough for truthers.