Monday, January 16, 2006

Iran Threatens Oil Market

You can read the details and my comments in my latest post over at the Wide Awakes.

10 comments:

Mr. Ducky said...

We should probably invade. That did wonders for oil production in Iraq.

Of course the Iranians can take payment in Yen and/or Euros to really give us the shock treatment. No need to disrupt supply.

LASunsett said...

Mr. Ducky,

What would be your solution?

Mr. Ducky said...

Unfortuntely this is a pretty nasty siuation. I would take advantage of the fact that Russia is pretty alarmed also (they have lots of pissed of muslims in Chechnya).

Try to get some steam behind their offer to have Russia delivery fuel for nuclear power with provisions that it be monitired. You can probably get international support for that plan and if Iran rejects it then we move on, although I distrust military solutions especially with this current clown car administration that doesn't seem to know or care that all hell can break loose.

LASunsett said...

Mr. Ducky,

That is fine, but hasn't Russia offered to do this (ot something similar to this), only to be rejected by Iran? That tells me they don't want a solution to this, they want conflict. Be it political, economic, or military, they want this to come to a head. A nasty head of any kind. Their reasoning is two fold. To provoke the west and to whip their constituents into a psychotic frenzy against us, like Hitler did.

But what it boils down to is this, either they are researching peaceful uses of nuclear power or they are not. And since they have no interest in Russia's offer, I have to believe that they are doing research for a bomb, in which case they will never, ever agree to be monitored.

I don't like nor would I be inclined to support military action, at this point in time. And I would love to see Russia and China both get involved in this and us stay out.

While that could be an option, initially. I have serious doubts that would be successful in the long run. I doubt China cares much, as they are the only ones not affected by jihad. They don't believe that it can or will happen. to them.

This Iranian president really believes that he can bring the world to the final conflict, with Islam winning. Whatever anyone decides to do, they need to do it soon. Standing around just talking about, talking about it, isn't going to solve a damned thing.

Shah Alexander said...

LA,

Sorry to bother you with an irrelevant comment, but did you send me an e-mail? I received a message, saying that an e-mail from "LASunsett@aol.com" failed to reach me.

If it was you, I suggest 3 e-mail addresses: "info@newglobal-america.org", "YHY03501@nifty.com", and "rossk@newglobal-america.org". One of them will receive your message.

Thank you in advance.

Mr. Ducky said...

Well LA it's true that the Iranian president is a prime nutjob. However, as he piulls this crap like his upcoming Holocaust meeting he just alienates himself further.

Libya found out that alienating the world community leads nowhere and I think Iran will realize they have to join the rest of the world. They have a young population that is looking for an open culture but which has also been driven to nationalism.

China and Russia are in talks with iran now. Best we just lie low and don't make waves till we see if something comes of it. Iran does not have nuclear fuel and they are a ways off, we have some time to develop a strategy.

Surely you must agree that the Iraq fiasco demonstrates what happens when you let cliches and ba intelligence be your guide.

Gindy said...

I am skeptical that they can do too much to the oil market in the long term. But, they could cause some havoc in the short term.

LASunsett said...

Gindy,

You may be right on that. But who knows?

The important thing to know before calling for sanctions is what the worst case scenario is. And them be willing to take the brunt of it, if it does have a profound effect.

LASunsett said...

Ducky. You wrote:

"Iran does not have nuclear fuel and they are a ways off, we have some time to develop a strategy."

But tell me, how can anybody be sure?

I am sure you took a history class or two at Cooper Union. Surely you agree that Europe has had a knack for procrastination on things of this nature, in the past. Knowing that and not having access to any intelligence, one can only surmise that when Europe is ready to do something, that means there is something that NEEDS to be done.

Europeans tend to want to keep the status quo, as long as they can. Nothing wrong with patience, when there is time and the opportunity to do so. But when the point is reached that waiting it out, is not going to solve the problem but only exacerbate it, you need a Plan A, B, C,and maybe D, E, and F. And you need to be willing to implement them.

As for Plan A, I hope the EU, Russia, and China can persuade them to cool their jets. I am not the slightest bit jealous in them taking some responsibility, in the world community. Not one bit. We have had to do it way too often, during the course of history. I will be cheering them on, hopeful they can avert a real disaster here. But I won't hold my breath, either.

We need real results here, it isn't a game. We do NOT need some BS deal that will smooth things over for a while, until they get pissed off and start the threat factory again.

Mr. Ducky said...

Well, I give the Europeans some credit. They were patient with Qadaffi and he has at least partiallt come in from the cold.

We did get some insight into how expensive a full cale nuclear program is and how hard it is to get one active.

Unfortunatelly Iran has oil money and can more easily get one going.

Given the choice between an air strike (by us, Israel can't get it done) or further negotiations... I hold off a while on the air strike at least till we pull out of Iraq where our presence would be untenable.