Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Random Thoughts

I have been busy of late and haven't had a chance to develop any real cogent post on any of the hot topics of the day, but I would like to share a couple of random thoughts about a couple of things that have been going around, of late.

Bernanke On The Recession.

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday the current economic situation bears "no comparison" to the much deeper crisis of the 1930s Great Depression.

"Well, you hear a lot of loose talk, but let me just ... say, as a scholar of the Great Depression -- and I've written books about the Depression and been very interested in this since I was in graduate school, there's no comparison," Bernanke said in a question period after an address in Austin, Texas.

Bernanke cited "an order-of-magnitude difference" in the current situation compared to the 1930s.

"During the 1930s, there was a worldwide depression that lasted for about 12 years and was only ended by a world war," he said.

"During that time, the unemployment rate went to 25 percent, at least, based on the data that we have. The real GDP (gross domestic product) fell by one-third. About a third of all of the banks failed. The stock market fell 90 percent."

I have stressed some of this information before. Plus, anyone that can read credible history texts can understand the differences, those that lived through it can speak it from experience.

I am not saying things aren't that bad. They are. I am not saying things cannot get this bad. They can. And they still might.

But let's step back take a breath here for a moment. Bernanke only touches on this but it's enough to cause a person to think, unemployment could have been higher because of obsolete methods of record keeping. When you factor in the GDP falling by a third and stocks falling by 90%, how can anyone believe this recession is at the same level?

Yet, some are content to make this sound worse than it is, for political gain. Their goal? To paint the worst possible picture, so that when the markets recover, they can claim credit. Basically, I am still waiting for anyone to prove that government intervention is an effective method of controlling the economy with it being central planning. Because in a free market economy, the word that stands out most, is the word "free".


Twitt Witt

Greg brought this video to our attention:

ALEX WITT: You know, John, and it’s interesting because there are many who had such an optimstic and hopeful opinion of things, and you certainly can’t expect things to change [snaps fingers] on a dime overnight, but there are many who suggested that with the outgoing Bush administration and the incoming Obama administration there would be something of a lull in terrorism attacks. There had been such a global outpouring of affection, respect, hope, with the new administration coming in, that precisely these kinds of attacks, it was thought — at least hoped — would be dampered down. But in this case it looks like Barack Obama is getting a preview of things to come.


Now let's see a show of hands here, how many people with an ounce of sense cannot understand why it is to the terrorists' advantage to test the strength of the transition? Anyone that knows anything about this kind of thing, knows well and good that the time to hit is when the target's security is at its weakest. Alex Witt must not have an ounce of sense.


9 comments:

Jennifer said...

Hello McFly? Only a moron would fall for the hope and change crap that was spewed, and really think that Obama coming into office would reduce terrorism. Terrorists can smell weakness a million miles away and will take advantage in any way they can.

He certainly is a twitt, I can't think of a better description, at least one that rhymes!

L'Amerloque said...

Hi LAS !

/// "Well, you hear a lot of loose talk, but let me just ... say, as a scholar of the Great Depression -- and I've written books about the Depression and been very interested in this since I was in graduate school, there's no comparison," Bernanke said in a question period after an address in Austin, Texas.

Bernanke cited "an order-of-magnitude difference" in the current situation compared to the 1930s.

"During the 1930s, there was a worldwide depression that lasted for about 12 years and was only ended by a world war," he said. ///

Apparently Big Ben (also a clock, that even when stopped, shows the correct time twice a day: there must be a moral in there somewhere … ) is convinced that there won’t be a war at the conclusion of all this. (sigh)

Does BB, who allegedly is an ‘expert’ on the Great Depression, realize that the credit/debit card was invented and popularized (http://tinyurl.com/ph4jq) beginning … 1950, while the charge card (http://tinyurl.com/595vqr) was invented in … 1914 ?

It certainly doesn’t appear so to Amerloque, an ever-attentive observer of / player in the economic scene, for the sake of self defense. (sigh)

Best,
L’Amerloque

L'Amerloque said...

Hi LAS !

One of the most thought-provoking columnists in the UK press (The Daily Telegraph) is a fellow named Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Amerloque --- and others, naturally: Amerloque claims no merit here ! --- pooh-poohed him for years as an irreconcilable Chicken Little --- yet much of what he says is disturbingly ‘true’, i.e, comes to pass in one way or another. His posts usually generate a significant number (>100) of lively, well written comments, well worth the read.

FWIW here is one of his recent efforts:


/// World stability hangs by a thread as economies continue to unravel


The political bubble is bursting. Spreads on geo-strategic risk are now widening as dramatically as the spreads on financial risk at the onset of the credit crunch.


…/…


When I visited Japan's Defence Ministry last year the deputy minister showed me charts detailing the intrusion of China's fast-growing fleet of attack submarines into Japanese waters. "We see its warships in the Sea of Japan all the time," he said.
Shoichi Nakagawa, the head of the ruling LDP party, was even more explicit. "What happens when China attacks Japan? Will the US retaliate on our behalf?" he said.


…/…


In the 1930s, it was not obvious to people living through debt deflation that their world was coming apart. The crisis came in pulses, each followed by months of apparent normality – like today.


…/…


We can hope that governments have acted fast enough this time – with rate cuts and a fiscal firewall – to head off such disasters. But then again, the debt excesses are much greater today. If in doubt, cleave to those countries with a deeply-rooted democracy, a strong sense of national solidarity, a tested rule of law – and aircraft carriers. The US and Britain do not look so bad after all. ///
http://tinyurl.com/6kouov


Best,
L’Amerloque

Greg said...

I can't believe you deny the Depression that Chimpy McTortureburton hath wrought! Why, just last week, I saw people waiting in line for hours just to purchase basic necessities, such as the latest I-Phone. On Black Friday, desperate shoppers had to trample one another just to have the chance at getting a new WiI with Guitar Hero.

No, but seriously, the more I think about this bailout plan, the more I think it may actually make things worse, and that is something to genuinely worry about. We're just doing more of what got us into this mess: spending more than we have.

As to [T]Witt, I noticed another inaninty in her statement: "but there are many who suggested that with the outgoing Bush administration and the incoming Obama administration there would be something of a lull in terrorism attacks." It's become pretty obvious that liberals aren't aware that the Bush administration has kept us safe for 7 years now. "Change" in this instance could only mean an increase in terrorist attacks. Obama is perceived as weak (b/c he is), and that is likely to invite attacks. Even Joe Biden says so....

Jennifer said...

Yeah, I call others McFly, and then I call she a he......(sigh)

Mustang said...

I know there are some seriously hurting people "out there." Right now, entire regions of the US are without employment opportunities. I think our situation is dire, my friends ... not all, but for far too many. The "bail out" will only make it worse.

Greg said...

Somewhat OT - I got robbed yesterday. They hit the house in the morning after we left for work. They kicked in a panel on the front door, reached in, unlocked it, and entered. Thankfully, my alarm spooked them off before they were able to take too much. The detective said it's getting real bad, and he blames the economic climate.

LASunsett said...

//Somewhat OT - I got robbed yesterday.//

Wow, Greg. Sorry to hear that. But glad to know they didn't get much.

Bastards.

L'Amerloque said...

Hi Greg !


/// I got robbed yesterday.///


Amerloque is pleased to hear that not much was stolen.


If it makes Greg feel any better, things are becoming worse here, too. Especially during the Christmas season ... there was an attempted mugging in Amerloque's basement garage, last month. Mme Amerlique set her dog loose at the other end ... the mugger left instantly. The dog is big, adopted-from-the-pound mongrel, who came to Mme A after two unsuccessful placements. The dog is very, very grateful to Mme A and is usually eager to demonstrate it. (grin)

The traffic site for Paris Ile de France is slowly giving up the ghost. http://tinyurl.com/5vh5ce

See those grey freeways, on the left (N12, A86, A13, A14)? No info available because ... the fiber/cable has been stolen.

In addition, many of the freeways on that map have only intermittent lighting at night, nowadays. They used to be very, very well illuminated. No, not some ecolo attempt to save energy; the copper cable has been stolen.

Whatta world.

Best,
L'Amerloque