Thursday, August 03, 2006

(Oil) Dependency Theory: The Iran Factor

Shah from Global American Discourse left this comment to one of my previous posts:

So far as the relationship between Israel and Arab neighbors, the media tend to use "dependency theory." They are too critical to Israel, simply because it is stronger, and too lenient to Arab terrorists, simply because they are weaker.

No one can expect fair and objective viewpoints.


Now Shah is no slouch here. He has an advanced degree in Poli-Sci and even beyond that, is a very intelligent young man. Just follow his links at his blog to his website and read his profile there, and you'll see. (Who knows? He may be Prime Minister someday.)

Shah has hit upon something that deserves further examination. Anyone that has any understanding of the "
Dependency Theory", can see the situation in the Muslim world. Since the day oil was discovered in the Middle East, the oil consuming nations have jockeyed with each other to ensure favor from the oil-producing Arab states. To do that, the modern mercantile nations have supported some pretty oppressive dictators and monarchies. All of this has been at the expense of the Arab people.

Add to that, the growth of carbon based fuels as the primary energy source and you have the makings of a system of great wealth vs. great poverty. The rulers that control the resource (so greatly coveted and desperately needed by the great oil-consuming nations) have made themselves wealthy, allowed the masses to live in poverty, and have extorted the rest of the world to do it. Instead of developing their societies into multi-faceted economies, they have created a nightmare scenario.

There are many that hypothesize that if free elections were held today in Saudi Arabia, al Qaida-like candidates would win control, much like Hamas has done in the Palestinian Authority and like many years prior, in Iran. And the concern is not just there, either. You also have to consider Jordan, Syria, and the emirates. They too have a large gap in the socio-economical structure.

Now, when you put this into perspective, you can see why the U.S., Russia, China, and Europe, ALL walk the tight line where the Middle East is concerned. The fear of being cut off from badly needed oil (therefore, wrecking an economy) always weighs heavily on their minds. This is why China and Russia have balked at getting too tough with Iran. It is also a primary reason that Europe hasn't been able to be more forceful in their negotiations.

With Iran being the primary sponsor of Hezbollah, the world that depends on Iranian oil is now (in effect) crippled.

Ask yourself, just how long has the UN been grappling over this? And then take a look at the progress (or lack thereof) that has been made. It is no wonder at all why Iran has felt emboldened and empowered and is trying to create a smokescreen in Lebanon. The UN is slower than the seven-year itch, because of the grip that these Iranian mullahs have over the oil-hungry members. No one wants to take a risk, and to some degree I cannot fault them. But how much longer must we all be kept hostage?
How much longer must the will of the extremists be considered over and above that which is right?

What to do? How do we see this threat for what it is and yet protect the interests of the nations that depend on Iranian oil?


We must face these questions and more, over the next few months. Because, this thing is not going to go away by itself. And something is going to have to be done, or this thing WILL get out of hand soon. One thing that must absolutely happen, is the Arab states must be willing to step up production to meet the shortage that will most likely occur, if the UN sticks by its guns and implements sanctions aginst Iran for non-compliance. Because you know very well that Iran will shut off the flow of their oil, as leverage (even to their own detrimant); and you also have to know that they most likely will not comply, at least not at first.

Then, the world has to stick to their guns and not relent. It will not be easy, but if the Arab oil-producing states step up to the plate, they too can be assistive in dealing with this clear and present danger, we all face at the hands of Iran. They too have a stake in this and it will require some help from them, too.


We can watch as Israel cleans Hezbollah's clock, right now. And that is certainly what is required at this point in time. But down the road, we had all better be thinking a couple of moves ahead, or we will be right back where we are today. Treating the symptoms, does not always guarantee a cure.

3 comments:

Shah Alexander said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Shah Alexander said...

Thank you for quoting my comment. In addition to the Iran factor, those who face direct threats from adversary powers tend to stand tougher to them than those who do not.

Israel to Hezbollah is no exception. See the rift between America and "Old Europe" on Iraq. See Japan's response to North Korean missile test.

I may be Prime Minister someday? Thank you again. Might, might, and might be.

LASunsett said...

Shah,

//I may be Prime Minister someday? Thank you again.//

You are welcome, sir. Are you running for Parliament, yet?

;)