Despite the world tour, the media's deification, and Hollywood's love affair with Obama, he just cannot shake McCain. The latest Gallup poll shows a 1% lead, which is well within the margin of error.
McCain has not run the best campaign, in fact he has been as dull as any contender I have ever seen. Yet, he is well withing striking range and stands as good of a chance of beating his charming but inexperienced rival. And although the pundits' electoral maps have been leaning Obama, the WaPo shows he is making some significant gains in some key battle ground states.
I think that as the moment of truth arrives (the time to actually pull the lever, punch the card, or touch the screen), people will be apprehensive to vote for Obama. The excitement of a new kind of candidate will have worn out and the reality of the situation may come to light. He has energized a younger group of people, but when it comes down to who they trust to make the hard decisions, I think anxiety will cause many to play it safe.
Whether we like McCain or not, the fear of the unknown is a greater force.