Saturday, April 15, 2006

Iran Steps Up Military Threats

From AFP comes this story.

Iran said it could defeat any American military action over its controversial nuclear drive, in one of the Islamic regime's oldest challenges yet to the United States.

You can start a war but it won't be you who finishes it," said General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the head of the Revolutionary Guards and among the regime's most powerful figures.

"The Americans know better than anyone that their troops in the region and in Iraq are vulnerable. I would advise them not to commit such a strategic error," he told reporters on the sidelines of a pro-Palestinian conference in Tehran.

Before I get started on this look at this map.

For a closer look at this,
look at this map.

Now, as you look at the eastern and western frontiers, you will see that Afghanistan lies on the east and Iraq lies on the west. As we all know, U.S. troops are in both countries. So, for an Iranian general to not understand the perils of fighting on two fronts, says that they did not learn the lesson provided to them courtesy of one of their all-time European heroes, Hitler. Hitler could not do it, and I seriously doubt Iran can.

Iran also has a large disaffected group of people, of which many have never known anything but the hardline theocratic oligarchs' (the mullahs) rule; and they long for more freedom and more moderate policies, domestic and foreign. If you doubt this, just check out the
Regime Change Iran blog, the one that is first on my blogroll under the title, A Daily Briefing On Iran. Now, I don't mean just click on it, glance at it for a couple of seconds, and then leave. I mean, take some time and read through it, as well as the archives. Those with objective and analytical minds can plainly see this is the case.

Iran also has a large amount of kids and the birth rate has been on the rise. Teens, twenty-somethings, and thirty somethings are becoming a larger demographic with each year. Take a look at
this table from a decade ago and note the decline of population as the ages progress upward. Then, in your mind, fast forward the numbers ten years. You can look at the numbers, do the math, and figure out how many are of military age. But don't let the numbers fool you, this generation has not been at war and they are not battle hardened, like those that fought in the Iraq-Iran War of the 80s.

Another factor is, these kids are not so different than many other kids in the world. In fact, there are other Muslim countries that have the same social problems as many western countries. Take Pakistan for instance, just read this essay by a Pakistani Muslim, visiting his homeland after many years in America.

Here are a couple of excerpts:

Harsh Islamic punishments exist and are given to offenders on account of adultery, theft, etc. It's done in public or on the streets. If the crimes are comniitted in the four walls of high society, they are acceptable. Serving alcohol is forbidden to Muslims in public, but not within the four walls of the houses, or in a hotel room. Islamic laws and punishment have not eliminated rape, abduction, theft, and murder. This is not
unexpected when the observance of law is forced from above (without practical example) rather than accepted by people themselves.

In Pakistan, the first known case of heroin addiction was recorded in 1980. In 1981, there were only 25 cases recorded. By 1986, there were half-a-million cases. Now it is estimated that there are between one and one-and-a-half million cases in a population of 95 million. The rate of growth of narcotic addiction in Pakistan is higher than that of the U.S. In addition to heroin addicts, there are about one million opium and hashish users and 300,000 tranquilizer abusers. The actual number of alcoholics is hard to determine, since they usually don't seek treatment. There are only 26 rehabilitation centers and 10,000 trained social workers.

I know this is Pakistan and we are talking about Iran, right? Well, have a look at this article. This one is about Iran. And it isn't much more flattering than Dr. Athar's article, if you are an Islamic fundamentalist that advocates the most rigid form of submission. The mullah's want us all to believe that Iran is the model of Islamic "virtue" and is an example to the world of how state-mandated Islam is creating a utopia. (sounds like the old Soviet Union, doesn't it?) But, as we see from this piece, it is anything but. (HT: Regime Change Iran for this article, BTW)

And if Iran, thinks it can win a nuclear war with the U.S., then I would say that it is really delusional. One or two nukes is not enough to put up the least bit of a fight, unless they can launch from rubble and smoltering cinders.

So, to this Iranian general and anyone else that wants to engage in this kind of empty rhetoric I say, poppycock.

They are a threat, and I am sure they will try something, especially if the world community does nothing (just as they are doing now). But, Iran clearly must understand that if they do, their nation will lie in ruins and the number of dead will far outweigh ours. And if that were to happen they would be very foolish.

That's why they must be put on notice and must be stopped, before we get to that point.


A.C. said...

Excellent points and certainly not findable in generic MSM stories. You make a convincing point about their youth and the level of substance abuse in the Muslim world (which they probably blame on us).

The question Ahmadinejad wants everyone to ponder is whether he's sane or would simply launch those one or two nukes at Tel Aviv in a marytrs last farewell.

BTW, the maps were very interesting. I didn't realize Sunni outnumbered Shia to such an extent.

LASunsett said...


The old Soviets had every problem we had, and had them worse. They just covered them up. No freedom of the press, no truth. Deeds are hidden and propaganda takes over.

Islamic nations are no different.