Wednesday, September 26, 2007

How Likely Is A Clinton-Obama Ticket?

Roger Simon has an interesting article from the Politico about the possibility of Obama being the running mate of Hillary, should she win the nomination. Most experts are predicting she'll win the nod, but the votes have not been cast yet. So, this is just the very type of conjecture that seems to surface, whenever there's a slow news day in the works.

Nevertheless, Simon makes some good points about why he thinks what he thinks. To see what he has to say, I suggest reading the article.

I think a Clinton-Obama ticket would not fare as well as others, for the same reasons he does and a few others.

1. Obama is viewed as a uniter, but his stances are far closer to that of the MoveOn.Org cult. Independents will recognize that and the GOP will most certainly spend a lot of time pointing that out, during the general election campaign. MoveOn really hurt itself with the General Betray Us ad and more people are coming to see the organization for what it really is.

2. Hillary has been characterized as a darling of the Left up until her pre-election period move to the center. To many, she's still not going to be completely trusted to be a centrist as President. Obama as a running mate will only shift the ticket further to the Left. She needs to win the center to win the election, period. Obama will not help her do that.

3. There has never been a woman head a ticket, there has never been a black on a ticket. If Hillary is nominated, people will be asked to shun tradition and vote for the first woman president ever. Right, wrong, or indifferent, to put a black and a woman on the same ticket would ask the people to accept too much change, too quickly. In other words, I think the country could elect either one without the other, much easier than with.

4. To win an election, the Dems must win some battleground states that went red in the last two elections. Someone that can carry a red state would be much more preferable on the ticket, than Obama. Evan Bayh, Tom Vilseck, and even Dick Gephardt would qualify as a candidate that could carry a red state.

As the election takes better shape, more will be known about the possibilities. The key here in all of this is, the votes and how they add up once the ballots are being cast. Right now, it's a slow period and the prognosticators are in full swing with their predictions and reasonings for them.

The Democratic nominee will need to consider a lot before a running mate is picked, but for now we can all theorize and play expert.

3 comments:

A.C. McCloud said...

I thought Bill was her running mate? :-)

My guess is we're about to see a Latino VP pick.

LASunsett said...

AC,

//My guess is we're about to see a Latino VP pick.//

Good point.

A local talk show host thinks that Bill Richardson is the one she will pick due to his favorability with Hispanics. I thought about including that with my assessment.

But, if she does, she's going to face a firestorm from blacks, who think she should pick Obama. If she picks someone that can carry a red state, she can justify it better. If she picks Obama, she risks alienating Hispanics. If she picks Richardson, she risks losing black support (Not to the GOP, but to staying home on Election Day)

What to do, what to do? From what I am seeing the Dems are more fractured than what they appear to be, when they are on stage together.

A.C. McCloud said...

If she picks someone that can carry a red state, she can justify it better. If she picks Obama, she risks alienating Hispanics. If she picks Richardson, she risks losing black support (Not to the GOP, but to staying home on Election Day)


Could be. She might figure that picking a Latino would energize and bring full turnout, effectively canceling the loss of black voters who stay home.

I wasn't thinking of Richardson due to his long ties to the old Clinton cabal. Heck, they've already got Sandy Berger on the team (wonder if the GOP will go after him, and if not, why not?). Then again, nobody else in the Latino community has more name recognition, so you may be right.

If you are right the only thing against Richardon the Repubs might try using would be his serious flip-flop on Iraq or the settlement of the Wen Ho Lee case, where there were rumors of his involvement. The conundrum for GOP is the idea of bashing him at all, since it'll be spun as an attack on Latinos and we all know how sensitive both parties are to that.