Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Phooey On The Polls

Newsbusters has a piece about Hillary's pollster complaining about unfavorable polls.

Presaging the kind of press control a President Hillary Clinton might try to impose, a member of her inner circle scolded Joe Scarborough today for having the audacity to mention a poll with results unfavorable to Clinton.

Here is the poll, Mark Penn is having trouble accepting.

Naturally, it isn't what he wants to hear so he denigrates the polling process used by Zogby and makes it the subject of the argument. Never mind that if the poll had been favorable to Sen. Clinton, this whole conversation would have never occurred.

Here is Zogby's response to Mr. Penn's criticism.

The bottom line here, is this:

Hillary's campaign is bleeding. It hasn't bled out yet, but it is actively bleeding and will do so, if they do not get a handle on it now. She is losing ground in Iowa, where many people (close to her) advised her to write off. She is losing ground nationally, maybe not as fast as Iowa, but support is beginning to erode.

I think the more she talks, the more people are not connecting with her. She comes across as polished, rehearsed, and seems to want to take on all of the softball interviews and reject those that want to ask the tough questions that need to be asked. Look at how Russert was demonized by her campaign for asking tough questions and how her campaign effectively brow beat Blitzer into easing up by making this a gender issue.

This is giving people the impression, she is weak. Not because she is a woman, but because Hillary the person is weak. Her talking out of both sides of her mouth is catching up to her.

At the same time, Obama is coming across as more sincere, despite his weaknesses in his ideology. He answers the questions posed to him with far less tap dancing. I may disagree with the vast majority of his answers and will not support him based on that alone, but make no mistake, people are connecting with him better. He firmly believes the wrong answers he gives are right and will not try to BS his way out of them, at least not to the degree that Sen. Clinton does.

I sense more desperation from the Clinton campaign these days. It's in her voice, her facial expressions, her body language, and now it's coming from her surrogate attack dogs like Mark Penn. Is this ropa-dopa, Ali-style? I doubt it. But, if it is, now is the time to punch back. She is absorbing too many blows right now and is swinging into the air, by sending people like Penn out to discredit a widely respected polling operation like Zogby.


Greg said...

Are Hillary supporters only now finding out that she is insincere, hence the perceived erosion in her support? Or is it that people are realizing she might not be the best candidate for the general election? I'm not sure, really.

In any case, I don't think any sane person can look at Obama and say, "Oh, yeah - he's way more sincere than Hillary." Example: the immigration issue. Lots of people say the issue divides Republican - which it does - but it is a much bigger problem for Democrats who want to please unions AND hispanics. Anyway, look at the answers they gave to the ridiculous "licenses for illegals" program proposed by Spitzer. Obama criticized Hillary - rightly - for flip-flopping. But he did the same thing, saying, "I wouldn't propose it, but I wouldn't oppose it." Huh?

Another example on another important issue: national security. Obama has lambasted Clinton for voting to call the Republican Guard what it is - a terrorist organization. He said it was dangerous for our country to do this. Yet, he didn't take the time to even show for the vote on this issue he thinks is so important.

Anyway, Hillary can't possibly have just realized what her "unfavorable" #'s are (she is consistently around 50% or more). She is trying to seem middle-of-the-road for the general election, but that won't help with the people who already hate her. And she may, as you suggest, alienate those who do like her.

But, as I think I have mentioned before, just about all the front-runners on both sides have high unfavorables. Someone like Huckabee, with low unfavorables, is Hillary's nightmare opponent, IMO. And someone like Joe Biden is Giuliani/Romney's worst nightmare. Imagine Huckabee vs. Biden. That would be a great race.

LASunsett said...

//I don't think any sane person can look at Obama and say, "Oh, yeah - he's way more sincere than Hillary."//

I don't discount what you are saying here. But I think the average joe's perception is that he does. Not everyone is a critical thinker, like we are. Not everyone parses statements like we do. We see it, they don't.

All politicians flip-flop. But some do it with more regularity and are easier to spot.

Anonymous said...

Political parties divide Americans. That’s the whole idea. Whether the democratic nominee will be Hillary Clinton (and I think it will be), or someone else, the general election will require Americans to choose between two platforms. There are people who will vote party no matter who the nominee is, and these are the “givens.” The unknown voters are people like us who will make a decision based on our trust and confidence of the candidates. In this group are people who will vote either party, and it is this group of people who are never reflected in polls. Anyway, I put as much stock in political polls as I do honesty in congress. Finally, let us all take some comfort in the fact that we’re all going to be screwed no matter who is ultimately elected president. The voter’s prayer for me is, “Lord, if I have to be screwed by anyone, please don’t let it be Hillary.” It’s a self-respect thing.

LASunsett said...

//The voter’s prayer for me is, “Lord, if I have to be screwed by anyone, please don’t let it be Hillary.” It’s a self-respect thing.//

Maybe you could start a "Draft Candy Dulfer For President" movement? Now that she has your credit card numbers, and all.