Friday, October 31, 2008

Upset For McCain?

As the media begins to fantasize about an Obama victory next Tuesday night, here are a couple of things you should be reading right now:

From Commentary Magazine comes ten reasons why McCain might win. You should read them all, but #9 is the one I would like to highlight for a moment.

9) The fire lit under Obama’s young supporters in the winter was largely due to Iraq and his opposition to the war. The stunning decline in violence and the departure of Iraq from the front page has put out the fire, to the extent that, like the young woman who made a sexy video calling herself Obama Girl and then didn’t vote in the New York primary because she went to get a manicure, they might not want to stand on line on Tuesday.

It articulates well with this story.

U.S. deaths in Iraq fell in October to their lowest monthly level of the war, matching the record low of 13 fatalities suffered in July. Iraqi deaths fell to their lowest monthly levels of the year.

Without the fervor of the anti-war sentiment, there is a significant chance the younger voters may not care enough about the economy to stand in line for an hour or two. Think about it, many of them already live in their parents' home and do not worry about their future.

The other piece I would recommend I found at Advance Indiana, claimed to be written by a Hillary supporter that also worked for Obama. (It apparently originated on RedState.Com, but they are experiencing server troubles at the time of this writing.) Again, it's worth the time to read the entire piece, but here is the part I want to highlight:

The Bradley Effect. Don’t believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true “toss up states”. The only two of these the campaign feels “confident” in are Iowa and New Mexico. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark. This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% “refuse to respond” result. You can’t possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the “hip” choice, and we all know it.

If we are to believe this, we could be in for a shock after the votes are counted. It's certainly possible, so it will be important for all people that are not comfortable with Obama in the White House, to vote. Do not rely on the media to tell you who has won the election before the results are known.


Anonymous said...

The polls are accomplishing what the media wants them too. To defeat the Republicans before they ever step out their door. It's posts like this that need to posted everywhere to encourage people to get out and vote no matter how the media paints it. We decide who wins, not the media! You make a very good point with this statement......

[Without the fervor of the anti-war sentiment, there is a significant chance the younger voters may not care enough about the economy to stand in line for an hour or two.]

LASunsett said...

//The polls are accomplishing what the media wants them too. //

If they turn out to be wrong, they will have a hard time being relevant ever again, especially in presidential election politics.

New Gallup poll will reportedly show McCain up by a point. Some reason to celebrate, but not too much. It will be a race to the finish. We cannot quit now, must keep getting the message out.

LASunsett said...

Correction: It's a Zogby Poll

Anonymous said...

I'm not celebrating quite yet......something about not counting your chickens.....LOL

Anonymous said...

I am reasonably certain that the election results will be well known by December or January. Obama hasn't hired 70,000 lawyers for nothing.